Superalloys Market

INTRODUCTION The global superalloys market is projected to register a robust CAGR of 7.64% during the assessment period. The key factors driving the global market growth are growing aerospace & defense industry across the globe and surging demand for superalloys in the manufacturing of aircraft components. In addition, the developments to enhance the superalloy properties and increasing demand for nickel-based superalloys in the energy sector is further expected to augment the global market growth in the coming years. Moreover, the growth of the end-use industries such as aerospace & defense, oil & gas, and chemical processing in Asia-Pacific is expected to create immense growth opportunities for the market players in the years to follow. However, availability of close substitutes such as CMCs is likely to hinder the global market growth during the forecast period. In addition, fluctuating price of nickel is expected to be the major challenge for the market players.

With the rising energy demand, there is increased pressure on the energy & power industry to use coal-fired, natural gas, nuclear, and renewable resources and adopt technologies that enhance the efficiency and increase the reliability of energy resources as well as reduce the environmental impact. Also, technological advancements are carried out in renewable energy production process to reach grid parity, and there is growing demand and increased spending on alternative sources of power such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Natural resources such as oil and gas that generating energy through combustion and nuclear sources require superior alloy materials that exhibit excellent level of performance and reliability. Moreover, the use of materials that offer high temperature and corrosion resistance helps to reduce the maintenance costs and increase shelf life in the nuclear energy sector, especially in harsh conditions. Furthermore, according to thermodynamics, high efficiency of engines can be achieved at higher operating temperatures. As power generation systems move toward higher efficiency operation at temperatures above 700°C, wrought irons are widely used structural alloys, including precipitation strengthened alloys 282 and 740 for the highest temperatures.

Superalloys are widely used in the energy & power industry. In ultra-supercritical boiler used for coal-fired heat generation, the superheater tubes are made of superalloys which meets the necessary requirements of excellent fireside corrosion resistance, good creep resistance, and high steam-side oxidation resistance properties. Also, in nuclear power generation, heat exchange tubes used for steam generator are made of superalloys exhibiting excellent solution corrosion resistance. In gas turbine engines used for gas power, guide vanes and turbine blades are manufactured from hot-corrosion resistant superalloys with superior solution corrosion resistance and long-term microstructure stability. Nickel-based superalloys are gaining popularity in power generation applications to generate higher temperature for higher efficiency operations. For fossil energy, the main concern is to emit less greenhouse gases by increasing the fuel efficiency of the system. There is a growing need to develop and qualify nickel-based alloys for use in advanced electrical power generation systems.

Nickel-based alloys are largely used in natural gas-fired turbines, the development of these alloys for the advanced coal-fired generation applications was first led by the US, by Advanced Ultra-supercritical consortium, with an aim of increasing steam temperatures to 760°C/34.5 MPa. With the increasing demand for high temperature and pressure goals, there is a growing need for precipitate-strengthened alloys 740 (and 740H) and 282. Precipitation hardening increases the yield strength of superalloys at extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Nickel-based alloys possess a face-centered cube (FCC) structure, which exhibits excellent toughness, ductility, and microstructure stability at elevated temperatures. Moreover, it has high tolerance to other alloying additions without hampering the phase stability. These alloys are strengthened by coherent precipitates of ordered intermetallic J'-Ni3(Al, Ti), which increases the strength with rise in temperature up to about 900°C. Besides, the development of nickel-based alloys is carried out by addition of other materials such as carbon to form carbide precipitates, and different-sized elements such as boron and zirconium to strengthen the grain boundaries. Also, solid solution elements such as cobalt and refractory elements (tungsten and molybdenum) are added which further increase the melting point of the alloys. Power generation applications generally use nickelbased alloys including HX, 718, 625, 230 and X-750 grades in gas turbine components, heat exchangers, land-based gas turbines, and industrial furnace and accessories.

Thus, the growing energy & power industry across the globe, increasing concern regarding renewable sources, and advancements in superalloys are likely to augment the global market growth in the coming years.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Asia-Pacific is expected to be the largest market accounting for more than half the total number of new passengers over the next 20 years. This is largely attributed to the continuous economic growth, growing middle-class population, rising tourism, and increasing disposable income. China is likely to replace the US as the world’s largest aviation market in the mid-2020s. India is expected to rank third after the US, surpassing the UK by 2024. Indonesia is expected to jump from 10th to 4th largest aviation market by 2030. Also, Thailand is likely to enter the top 10 markets in 2030, displacing Italy in the ranking. Moreover, by 2035, an additional 1.8 billion annual passengers will be transported to, from, and within Asia-Pacific for the total market size of USD 3.1 billion and is expected to grow by 4.7% per annum. In addition, according to the Association of AsiaPacific Airlines (AAPA), in July 2017, the region’s airlines carried around 1,214 million passengers and 20 million tons of cargo, representing over one-third of the world’s passenger traffic and over two-fifths of world’s air cargo traffic, respectively. The high growth in Asia-Pacific is likely to create lucrative opportunities for the manufacturers of superalloys. Also, Boeing forecasts intra-Asia traffic’s share will rise to almost 35% of global air travel for the next 20 years. Furthermore, the defense industry is growing at a robust rate owing to the geopolitical tensions between the countries. China and India are two of the five biggest spending nations.

Five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year from 2017 to 2037

 China–1 billion new passengers for a total of 1.6 billion

 US–481 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion

 India–414 million new passengers for a total of 572 million

 Indonesia–282 million new passengers for a total of 411 million

 Thailand–116 million new passengers for a total of 214 million

The Asia-Pacific market is estimated to account for 64.6% of market share of the global chemical market by 2030. Growing chemical processing industry coupled with increasing demand for various end-use industries such as pharmaceuticals, oil & gas, and polymers, and economic growth are the major factors driving the growth of the chemical market in the region. In terms of value, the chemical industry’s overall contribution to the Asia-Pacific region’s GDP was USD 2.6 trillion (greater than the entire GDP of India). Superalloys offer superior mechanical strength and creep resistance at high temperatures, oxidation and corrosion resistance, and reliable surface stability. Various brands of alloys such as Monel, Hastelloy, and Inconel are used in chemical and hydrocarbon processing equipment, fasteners, freshwater tanks, heat exchangers, pumps, shafts, tubing, and valves. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific market for oil & gas is likely to witness robust growth in the coming years owing to rapid urbanization and industrialization. At present, the regional market consumes over 25% of the world’s oil supply, 10% of the natural gas, and 45% of coal. Moreover, nickel-copper alloy construction is highly resistant to seawater and steam at high temperatures, as well as superior resistance to salt and caustic solutions. In oil & gas industry, superalloys can be used in the manufacturing of crude oil distillation towers, gasoline tanks, and seawater handling equipment among others.

Thus, the expanding aerospace, chemical processing, and oil & gas industries in the developing countries of Asia-Pacific is expected to create lucrative opportunities for the market players during the review period.

Advanced materials play a major role in enhancing the performance of the turbine engine ever since the start of the first turbojets in the 1940s. Nickel-based superalloys are the most commonly used high-temperature structural materials to manufacture turbines. Currently, most of the exhaust ducts in aircraft gas turbine engines are manufactured using nickel-based superalloys. However, the rising temperature of modern engines is demanding the use of higher temperature materials. Exhaust gases generally exceed 750°C, and this temperature is expected to increase as technological advancements are carried out in the engine design. Till date, engine designers particularly use superalloys for exhaust ducts, as these alloys have been the only reliable materials available for use at high temperatures. Superalloys account for over 70% of aircraft engine’s weight.

When it comes to suitable alternatives, ceramic matric composites (CMCs) offer numerous advantages at high-pressure zones, including a reliable performance at extreme temperatures up to 1300°C and require no need for cooling air requirements. CMCs are manufactured from silicon carbide matrix toughened with a coating of silicon carbide fibers and are light in weight. In addition, the introduction of CMCs allows fuel burn reduction up to 2%. Superalloys are relatively denser than ceramics.

The material density of CMCs is one-third that of nickel-based alloys, enabling over 50% reduction in the turbine component weight. Aerospace engineers are opting for CMCs in best-selling aircraft on account of its superior temperature resistance up to 260°C higher than nickel-based alloys at just one-third the weight. Furthermore, when CMC parts are used in gas turbines, the engines operate at 15% more efficiency on account of its reduced weight. In order to burn less fuel, aircraft engines must operate at higher temperatures and contribute less weight as compared to nickel superalloys.

CMCs are tough as metals and can withstand extreme temperatures. They require less cooling to be diverted from the thrust, which allows the engines to run at a higher thrust. Also, minimizing the required cooling flow increases the overall efficiency of the engine cycle. Moreover, engines will run hotter, combusting all the fuel which further emits less pollutants. Consequently, CMCs in industrial power turbines could reduce emission and the cost of electricity. GE Aviation (GE) development activities have been carried out for more than 30 years, and the company has invested more than USD 1.5 billion to develop SiC/SiC CMCs, components, and enhancing its manufacturing process. GE has applied CMC to nozzles, turbine liners, shrouds, and vanes and is the first company to introduce a CMC rotating part. In October 2010, GE manufactured a CMC-based 4-inch-long low-pressure turbine blade. Moreover, developments in the processing of both CMCs and monolithic ceramics have resulted in enhanced mechanical properties. Such technological advancements are making it possible to consider ceramic materials (CMCs) in aerospace industry in replacement to superalloys.

Thus, the availability of favorable substitutes such as CMC is likely to hinder the global market growth in the coming years.

Nickel is an essential element in the manufacturing of superalloys and accounts for more than 75% of the market. Thus, understanding the behavior of nickel metal and its nature of price fluctuation is necessary to avoid high prices of superalloys. Nickel-based superalloy finds widespread applications in jet engines, turbines blades, and heat exchanger tubes. Owing to its exceptional mechanical properties such as excellent corrosion, temperature, and oxidation resistance for a longer period of time; high durability, and reliability, nickel has become pervasive in modern technological societies. Visible consumption of nickel began in the 19th century when metallurgical advancements were established on the back of industrialization processes in the western world, which created significant demand for nickel in superalloys for major end-use industries.However, prices of nickel have been significantly volatile over the past 150 years. While prices were high in certain times, in other periods prices sharply reduced or stagnated at certain levels for many years. The major proportion of today’s world nickel consumption occurs in industrial countries without own production. Thus, most of the industrial countries and their economies are largely dependent on metal imports, while emerging economies are highly reliant on the revenue generated from metal ore exports and trade to finance their governmental expenditure. The prices reached their peak at USD 15,235 ton per ton in June 2018 and then reduced to USD 11,050 per ton in January 2019. The current price is a soaring USD 17,810 per ton in September 2019. Fluctuating nickel prices is likely to affect the overall price of nickel-based superalloys which increases the import and logistic costs. Volatile prices of nickel are expected to hinder the overall market growth and creates intense competition between the major players.

Thus, fluctuating prices of nickel as a raw material is expected to pose a major challenge to the market players